I have never understood why Chief Justice Rehnquist did not retire during George W. Bush's first term. His health was in decline. He DID look awful at the 2005 Inauguration. He probably wanted his successor to be conservative, like he was. Republicans held a Senate majority during the entire Bush first term. He knew Bush was going to have a tough re-election. And John Kerry almost won in 2004.
Imagine the direction the Supreme Court would have taken in a counterfactual where President Kerry named a Merrick Garland or someone similar as Chief Justice? Justice O'Connor may or may not have held off her own retirement -- though I accept her stated reason that her husband's declining health was a major factor. Had she also departed, a very liberal Supreme Court majority: KerryCJ, Kerry AJ, Stevens, Souter, Breyer, and Ginsburg, would have clearly dominated the Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy conservative wing.
Interesting question. But pardon me for correcting one important fact. Republicans lost control of the Senate in June 2001 when Senator Jeffords changed parties. They regained it (by a very narrow 51-49 margin) after the 2002 elections. So that wouldn’t have given Rehnquist much time to decide to resign in 2003. And he probably wouldn’t have wanted to resign in the election year of 2004. All that said, you are certainly correct that the Court was very much at risk in the 2004 election.
I have never understood why Chief Justice Rehnquist did not retire during George W. Bush's first term. His health was in decline. He DID look awful at the 2005 Inauguration. He probably wanted his successor to be conservative, like he was. Republicans held a Senate majority during the entire Bush first term. He knew Bush was going to have a tough re-election. And John Kerry almost won in 2004.
Imagine the direction the Supreme Court would have taken in a counterfactual where President Kerry named a Merrick Garland or someone similar as Chief Justice? Justice O'Connor may or may not have held off her own retirement -- though I accept her stated reason that her husband's declining health was a major factor. Had she also departed, a very liberal Supreme Court majority: KerryCJ, Kerry AJ, Stevens, Souter, Breyer, and Ginsburg, would have clearly dominated the Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy conservative wing.
Interesting question. But pardon me for correcting one important fact. Republicans lost control of the Senate in June 2001 when Senator Jeffords changed parties. They regained it (by a very narrow 51-49 margin) after the 2002 elections. So that wouldn’t have given Rehnquist much time to decide to resign in 2003. And he probably wouldn’t have wanted to resign in the election year of 2004. All that said, you are certainly correct that the Court was very much at risk in the 2004 election.
These articles make for great alternate universe musings.