This is very interesting. I am not sure it would have worked with then-judge Alito though. It's easy to forget, but he had a pretty establishment profile at the time and 55 is a lot of Republicans. I think Sen. Frist would have threatened to abolish the filibuster for SCt nominees by point of order and Sen. McConnell and some other then-doubters would likely have gone along if necessary. Maybe they would lose a couple of Rs but not enough, and if that's right maybe the Ds would figure out a way out of filibustering at that point.
It's hard to be sure though. Frist was no McConnell as majority leader, and McConnell was in a much stronger position to do it over Gorsuch (whose profile I think was similar to Alito's before his SCOTUS tenure) after the Ds abolished the filibuster for lower court judges over his warning.
What the Ds should have done I think was leave the filibuster alone until the Kavanaugh nomination. McConnell would have had trouble abolishing the filibuster over that given how closely divided the Senate was and how that nomination fight played out, however unfairly. And this might have led to problems for abolishing it for any conservative nominated after Judge Kavanaugh too.
1. Maybe. But it took two years of frustration to get Senate Rs close to abolishing the filibuster in 2005. I'm very dubious that they would have done so in midst of Alito battle. Much more likely is that filibuster threat means that someone else is nominated.
2. Completely agree on folly of Gorsuch filibuster. Will address more fully later.
Per CNN, post hearing, 54% favored confirmation, 30% opposed. 38% thought filibuster justified, 48% did not. I don't think 50 Rs would have tolerated filibuster with those numbers.
This is very interesting. I am not sure it would have worked with then-judge Alito though. It's easy to forget, but he had a pretty establishment profile at the time and 55 is a lot of Republicans. I think Sen. Frist would have threatened to abolish the filibuster for SCt nominees by point of order and Sen. McConnell and some other then-doubters would likely have gone along if necessary. Maybe they would lose a couple of Rs but not enough, and if that's right maybe the Ds would figure out a way out of filibustering at that point.
It's hard to be sure though. Frist was no McConnell as majority leader, and McConnell was in a much stronger position to do it over Gorsuch (whose profile I think was similar to Alito's before his SCOTUS tenure) after the Ds abolished the filibuster for lower court judges over his warning.
What the Ds should have done I think was leave the filibuster alone until the Kavanaugh nomination. McConnell would have had trouble abolishing the filibuster over that given how closely divided the Senate was and how that nomination fight played out, however unfairly. And this might have led to problems for abolishing it for any conservative nominated after Judge Kavanaugh too.
1. Maybe. But it took two years of frustration to get Senate Rs close to abolishing the filibuster in 2005. I'm very dubious that they would have done so in midst of Alito battle. Much more likely is that filibuster threat means that someone else is nominated.
2. Completely agree on folly of Gorsuch filibuster. Will address more fully later.
Do you remember the polls on the Alito nomination after his hearing? I don't and I think that would have mattered.
Obviously impossible to know
Per CNN, post hearing, 54% favored confirmation, 30% opposed. 38% thought filibuster justified, 48% did not. I don't think 50 Rs would have tolerated filibuster with those numbers.